Gold and silver finished a poor week on a sour note as boatloads of economic data ended up taking its toll on spot values. All in all, the attitude of investors did not undergo much of a change this week. To be honest, the past 5 days have played host to very little in the way of economic activity and has brought about no real geopolitical news stories. Now that Greece, China, and the Iranian nuclear deal are all on the back-burner, it is tough to say where gold and silver are going to derive any sort of upward momentum.

Looking ahead to next week, I would be remiss if I didn’t say that it was shaping up to be just as slow as this week turned out to be.

Hawkish Comments From Dennis Lockhart

One of the week’s top news stories unfolded on Tuesday when it was reported that Atlanta Federal Reserve president Dennis Lockhart made comments alluding to his support of a September interest rate increase. In his prepared speech, Lockhart made it clear that he is fully behind a rate hike, though he did not specify when he would like that hike to occur.

Being a voting member of the Fed, Lockhart’s comments on interest rates is heavily weighted by investors. Immediately after his comments, the greenback ticked upward while metals continued along their now quite extensive declines. With interest rate hikes expected to take place at the September FOMC meeting, investors the world over are beginning to make moves that factor in soon-to-be risen rates. Because of this, there is somewhat of a likelihood that gold and silver may soon be relieved of some of the pressure being created by rate hike speculation.

Wealth of Jobs Data

As was mentioned previously, this week offered a good bit of economic data from the US. All in all, the data was a mixed bag of upbeat and less than impressive reports, but the overall slate of data was determined to be upbeat in nature. Earlier in the week, ADP released its reading on private-sector job creation during the month of July. Though most people were anticipating a rise in private-sector jobs of more than 220,000, the actual figures showed that fewer than 190,000 jobs were actually created. This news did little to support the Dollar and actively unnerved some investors who began thinking that Friday’s Labor Department non-farm payrolls report would come back short of expectations.

Fortunately, these investors were proven to be wrong by mid-morning on Friday when it was reported that roughly 215,000 non-farm payrolls were created during the month of July. These figures did not necessarily impress investors, but the fact that the data fell in line with expectations was good enough for most to stick to the belief that rate hikes will be coming in September. Despite adding more than 200,000 jobs during July, the overall unemployment rate remained stuck at 5.3%.

Looking ahead to next week, it is highly likely that things will be slow and typical of a mid-summer week. For gold and silver, this is not good news at all as slow days in recent history have often meant that spot values will be taking a hit at the hand of technical selling. Thanks to the expected data void, you can expect that most of the talk around the global marketplace will be regarding interest rate hikes.

Many investors are wondering if and when gold and silver might receive an upward boost, but that much is tough to say for sure. Current market conditions are wholly stacked against precious metals, so it is going to take a big data release or geopolitical development for metals to be given any sort of upward momentum.

Gold and silver will finish the week posting losses, but things are much better than what they could have been and what they were a week ago. All in all, this week saw the focus of the market placed entirely on US economic data, but there were a few rumblings in Asia that the investing world felt it necessary to pay attention to. Despite such a large slate of US economic data, it was only a report or two that really caught the eyes and ears of investors.

Across the globe, things have quieted down considerably now that we no longer have the Greek debt debacle or Iranian Nuclear Deal to worry about. The USD and euro have become sparring partners once more, but as has been the case for the past few months the greenback is the better of the two as far as performance and future outlook is concerned.

Chinese Equities Hurt US Equities

A theme that has been found over the past few trading weeks is one that shows an extremely unstable Chinese equity market. Stocks in China have been up and down for the past month or so, and the general downward movement of the Chinese stock market has been dragging down other global equity markets as well.

Though US stocks are performing well at present, they too are feeling the stress of China’s instability. This is why we have seen US stocks fluctuate at times over the past few weeks. All in all, however, the US economic picture is a bright one and is only continuing to improve with each passing week.

Heavy Slate of US Economic Data

The biggest piece of economic data made public this week came on Thursday in the form of the GDP report from the US’ second quarter. Officially, the GDP data came back about in line with expectations and was generally upbeat. With most people overlooking the data from this year’s second quarter, it gave them time to focus on a revision made to first quarter GDP data.
According to the revision, US first quarter GDP ticked upward by nearly 3%, despite previous predictions holding that the US economy grew by less than on half of one percent. This data was heralded as a big success considering most looked back at this year’s first quarter in disappointment.

The news was not all good from the US as investors saw pending home sales and consumer confidence dip noticeably in June. These two pieces of data were considered by the investing world, but were generally overlooked as the GDP data is much more heavily weighted in the eyes of investors.

This week also played host to July’s FOMC meeting, which wrapped up Wednesday afternoon. Wanting to hear more with regard to pending interest rate hikes, the market paid close attention to anything and everything Janet Yellen had to say in her post-meeting statement. Unfortunately, in typical Fed fashion, Ms. Yellen did not offer much in the way of actual insight with regard to interest rate hikes. Instead, she and her colleagues maintained that the US economy is continuing to improve and will be ready for interest rate hikes when the time comes.

Looking ahead to next week, I imagine that we will see the market focus on US equities, the USD, and just about anything else pertaining to the US economy. There are many factors that may affect the raising of interest rates, but at this point hikes are more or less expected to happen come September or October.

This week was yet another turbulent one for precious metals thanks to a lack of fundamental, bullish news. Though we did not receive all that much information regarding global economic data, there were a number of crucial events that took place that are actively shaping the global economic atmosphere. At present, the overall outlook on precious metals is a fairly bleak one as many, many factors continue to stack up against gold and silver.

For now, spot values are well-below key price thresholds and are looking like they will stay that way. Risk-appetite amongst global investors is picking up and growing, and this will likely continue to negatively affect spot values.

Greece Accepts Austerity Measures

Perhaps the biggest news story of the week unfolded on Monday when it was announced that Greek negotiators came to an agreement with IMF and EU creditors regarding additional bailout funds. Despite last week’s referendum making it clear that Greek citizens do not want intense austerity measures, that is exactly what this latest deal involves.

Though an agreement was reached on Monday, it wasn’t until Wednesday when the Greek parliament voted to accept the deal. Overall, some drastic austerity measures are going to be put in place in exchange for Greece being given further bailout funds. Though most agree that this is not necessarily the best solution, we are confident in saying that this Greece situation will be on the back-burner of the marketplace’s attention.

Iran Deal Finally Going Through

After years and years of negotiations, Iran and 6 other world powers were finally able to come to an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The deal, which is quite lengthy, will see Western sanctions lifted in exchange for tightened oversight on Iran’s nuclear program.

Despite Iran constantly saying that their nuclear ambitions are strictly for energy, most Westerners agree that Iran is actively trying to acquire nuclear weapons.

Though the exact details of this deal are still being ironed out, it is widely believed that one of the biggest aspects of this deal will see Iranian crude oil hit markets where it has been banned for decades. Thanks to the overall global supply of crude oil being glutted at present, the idea of Iranian oil on the market is something that is actively driving the price of oil downward. Being that oil and metals are two linked commodities, the falling price of crude oil this week has been dragging spot values down with it.

Yellen Hawkish on Interest Rate Hikes

Another big point of interest this week was Janet Yellen speaking to Congress regarding the future of monetary policy in the US. During her prepared speeches, Yellen made it clear that the US economy is more than prepared to incur interest rate hikes at some point before the New Year. Up to this point, the market was still pretty well divided with regard to when they thought interest rates might be hiked. Some were thinking that rates may not be hiked until next year, but now we can say with some confidence that rate hikes will happen sometime this year.

As is typically the case, the more hawkish attitude towards rate hikes is yet one more factor weighing on spot values. Because higher interest rates will cause investors to seek out interest-bearing assets, safe-haven gold and silver will naturally take a hit. Going forward, it is looking like it will be difficult for gold and silver to gain much of any traction. This is especially true so long as US economic data remains on the positive side of things. I am not sure what will help gold and silver gain any traction, but the near-term outlook is bleak to say the least.

Precious metals, once again, spent a majority of the week trending downward. The stories really haven’t changed and the market is still very much concerned with what is happening in Greece. The entire situation over there has not had a major impact on markets, but that is mostly because investors are awaiting an official outcome before making any drastic decisions. As it stands, however, the situation in Greece is deteriorating by the day as banks continue to run out of money and citizens grow ever more frustrated.

Another economic situation worth talking about has butted its head in China and is already taking the world by storm. It has been no secret that China has had its economic and financial problems over the course of the past year or two, but this week things got far worse than anyone would had projected.

Greece Says No to Austerity

Towards the end of the week last week, we were busy focusing on Greece and their upcoming referendum vote. The vote, held last Sunday, allowed Greeks to decide whether they would trade austerity measures for more EU-backed funds, or if they would say no to austerity and forge their own path; one that would likely see them kicked out of the European Union. Finally, by the time markets opened on Monday, the world found out that about 60% of those that voted voted against austerity measures. Though the vote was celebrated as a victory, the real problems have only just begun.

Now, a few days on, Greek banks are running out of money and so too are ATMs. Greek government officials are still trying to strike any sort of deal that will see money sent their way, but there hasn’t been much progress to speak of. Going forward, we will continue to keep an eye on Greece, but with each passing day it seems as though they are inching closer and closer to an exit from the European Union.

Chinese Stocks Suffering

Chinese equity markets have been under a lot of stress recently, and it all came to a head on Wednesday when China’s Shanghai Index partook in a nosedive of sorts. With Chinese stocks moving downward across the board, other stock markets began to take notice. In places like Australia, South Korea, and the United States, stocks also moved downward on the news of China’s troubles.

While this may sound like good news for gold and silver, the fact that China, the world’s leading consumer of precious metals, is doing poorly only hurt spot values. Even on Wednesday, initially large gains were later outdone. The Chinese government is doing all it can to prevent stocks from falling even further, but so far little progress has been reported. It must be said, however, that even though China is performing poorly at present, stocks there are still at decent levels thanks to an extended bullish run that took place towards the end of 2014.

Looking ahead to next week, I am of the opinion that our focus will remain on both China and Greece. As Greece struggles to find funding, and China looks to rectify its deteriorating economy, investors are left to wait and watch. For now, gold and silver are in a bit of a limbo, not being able to move too far in either direction, but that very well might change by the time markets open back up next week. The FOMC meeting for July is also beginning to concern investors, but is presently being overshadowed by the two aforementioned scenarios.

For a majority of the week, gold and silver edged downward slowly but surely. There was a lack of economic data this week, and that ended up taking its toll on precious metals. Now that we are at the end of the week, investors have to come to terms with the fact that both gold and silver are going to conclude the week well-below key price thresholds. Silver finds itself below the $16/ounce mark while gold moved below $1,200/ounce and is continuing to fall.

Looking ahead to next week, I am not so sure we will see much of a change as there isn’t much economic data expected to be made public. You see, we are right in the middle of the summer, and this time of year has been notorious for its lack of fundamental data. Though the next few weeks will bring about plenty of quarter-end economic data, next week is shaping up to be mostly slow.

Greece Remains in the Headlines

For a majority of the last few weeks, we have seen the market’s undivided attention placed on ongoing Greek negotiations with creditors regarding the restructuring of debt repayments. Up to this point, Greece has been defiant in that they are unwilling to bow down to the orders of creditors. This is all fine and good, but the fact that Athens refuses to cooperate with the people to which it owes money is actively preventing the Mediterranean nation from receiving billions of dollars of additional bailout funds. Though we have seen almost no progress whatsoever in recent history, the early parts of the week brought about hopes that that would change.

As soon as markets opened on Monday, investors the world over were on the receiving end of news of a new proposal submitted by Greece over the weekend. The new proposal was said to be different than previous proposals because it outlined many concessions Greece was willing to make; concessions they had previously shot down.

Unfortunately, as the week moved forward, we heard of very little else regarding this proposal. Now, with there being less than a week left in the month of June, we seem to be approaching the 11th and 12th ours of negotiations. Basically, if Greece cannot strike a deal with creditors by this time next week, their exit from the European Union may become a reality. Throughout much of this week, the market has simply not reacted to what is going on in Greece. Most are simply waiting and seeing what happens over the course of the next 5 days or so.

US First Quarter Data Revised Upward

In a somewhat surprise announcement, the Commerce Department this week released their revised readings regarding first quarter GDP growth. While it was originally reported that GDP in the first quarter declined by more than .7%, the Commerce Department changed this downward move to a mere .2% decline.

Though it is still disappointing to see GDP declines, investors were ecstatic to see that the winter months of this year were not nearly as bad as previously believed. With expectations for the next few months extremely high, investors everywhere expect to see the US economy finish the year on a strong note. All of this will, of course, tie into what happens to interest rates going forward. The Fed recently made it clear that they are in no rush to hike interest rates, overly upbeat economic data released over the course of the coming weeks stands the chance of changing that outlook very quickly.

For precious metals, the last 5 days have not been all that eventful. Despite getting the week off to a great start, things quickly turned around by midweek and whatever gains were made on Monday and Tuesday were done away with by Thursday. There has been a lot going on across the global marketplace as of late, but much of this action is more speculation and guessing than anything else.

As far as economic data is concerned, there really was not all that much to talk about this week. What little there was, however, was of great importance to investors the world over. Looking ahead to next week, the 5-day trading session’s top billing is without a doubt the FOMC meeting that is expected to kick off on Tuesday and wrap up sometime Wednesday afternoon with a speech from fed chairperson Janet Yellen.

Greece Remains Obstinate

It seems as though we have not been able to keep Greece out of the headlines for the past few months. Now, the story hasn’t changed much, but the clock is slowly winding down to the point where Greece is either going to have to pay debts or no longer remain part of the European Union.

This week, in an apparent show of frustration, the IMF’s negotiation team headed back to Washington DC after a bunch of failed talks. Like the IMF, the European Commission is equally frustrated with Greece, saying that the Mediterranean nation is gambling with its future by not abiding by IMF/EU budgetary targets and other reforms. Because of this obstinacy, Greece is continuing to go without multiple billions of euros worth of bailout funds.

Next week will bring us to the latter half of the month, so it will be interesting to see if Greece wises up or continues along this same path. Though many people have retained hope for a deal through even the toughest of times, I am beginning to think that Greece’s days as a member of the European Union are numbered.

Miscellaneous US Data

This week brought about some US economic data, but it was notable because of how upbeat the data was. For one, there was a report from May showing that year on year retail sales for the US rose by about 1.2%. Considering expectations were for an annualized gain of 1%, this news was generally regarded as being great.

What’s more, reports from May indicate that imports rose for the first time in more than ten months. This batch of data only lends more credence to the belief that interest rates will be raised sometime this summer.

Next week brings about the June installment of the FOMC meeting, and it is expected to kick off on Tuesday and wrap up sometime Wednesday afternoon with a statement on the part of Janet Yellen, the Fed chairperson. I, like many others, am hoping that we will find out some more information regarding the timing and extent of interest rate hikes, but am not going to hold my breath on the matter. I am of the school of thought that the next few weeks will be telling for gold and silver, but I am not so sure it will be anything positive such that spot values will move forward.

Gold and silver made gains during the early parts of the week, but things quickly turned around by Wednesday. Now, precious metals are going to conclude the week having not moved all that much from where they began the 5-day trading session. It will truly be interesting to see what happens to spot values over the course of the next few weeks.

Precious metals have spent a lot of time on the decline this week, but through the last few days were able to stabilize just a bit. Thanks to worries surrounding Greece’s ability, or lack thereof, to pay off debts, gold and silver are responding positively to increased safe-haven demand. There wasn’t all that much in the way of economic data this week, thanks to it being a shortened week due to the Memorial Day holiday being celebrated on Monday.

As we look ahead to the coming days and weeks, attention is once again being placed on the subject of interest rate hikes in the United States. Despite only a few weeks ago it being more or less confirmed that interest rates would not be risen this year, belief is starting to grow that that is exactly what is set to happen sometime in the near future.

Interest Rate Hike Discussion Picks Back Up

For a majority of the early parts of 2015, economic data from the United States has been lacking to say the least. It seems as though every week I am writing about one or more reports that quite simply missed the mark, and on many occasions drastically so. Thanks to the slow but sure degradation of US economic data, the outlook on the part of investors regarding interest rate hikes slowly but surely took a dive. As of a few weeks ago, you would have been hard-pressed to find an investor who was banking on interest rates being hiked this summer. Now, the number of people who abide by this belief is growing.

Just last week, Janet Yellen spoke and insinuated that interest rate hikes very well might be right around the corner. Add that to the fact that immediately recent economic data from the US has been upbeat, and investors are already changing their opinions regarding rate hikes.

This renewed belief on the part of investors has not done gold and silver any favors. As investors scurry to get their hands on interest-bearing assets, safe-haven gold and silver is left playing second fiddle. Of course, with that being said, it is important that we do not forget just how crucial all the instability across Europe has been for metals as of late.

Greek Debt talks Remain In Focus

Also more or less a constant in recent weeks is the discussion regarding Greece’s inability to pay back loans. Despite being at the negotiating table for the better part of the past month or more, officials from Greece and the IMF/EU cannot seem to see eye to eye.

A few weeks ago, Greece’s prime minister made it clear that if a deal is not reached by the end of May, Greece may very well be leaving the EU. Now that the end of May is approaching quickly, that deadline is becoming realer. Just yesterday, it was officially announced that unless a deal is reached Greece would assuredly not be able to make its next loan repayment in full. If this situation does unfold we may very well currently be witnessing some of the last days of Greece as a member of the European Union.

Some rumors were circulating today claiming that Greece and its debtors are bound to reach an agreement by Sunday, but this sounds more like wishful thinking that anything else. With that said, it will be very interesting to see what the headlines are by the time markets open up on Monday morning.

Precious metals have had an interesting week, but also a fairly lackluster one as well. The market has not been dealt all that much in the way of economic data, so there hasn’t been all that much movement on the part of gold and silver other than a small price dip incurred earlier this week.

For now and for much of the foreseeable future, I anticipate that the attention of the market will be firmly fixated on what is going on with the US economy. Economic data point after economic data point continue to stream in, and recently most of it has been disappointing in nature. Moving forward, we will see just what kind of impact this continued string of poor data will have on the outlook regarding when interest rates in the United States might be hiked.

FOMC Minutes Make Splash

Straight from the time markets opened up on Monday, investors the world over were speculating with regard to what the FOMC minutes from the most recent meeting might have to say. Though the minutes were not due out until Wednesday, the thought of them consumed the attention of most investors.

Finally, on Wednesday, the minutes were released and, like the post-meeting statement, painted the picture of a Fed that seems to be doubtful of its ability to raise interest rates anytime in the near future. This news did not go over well with investors who would like to see rates hiked sometime this summer. At this point, summer rate hikes seem like an impossibility.
As if that weren’t bad enough, the only data from the United States that we have received this week has been downtrodden in nature. Just today we received word of downbeat existing home sales from April. After a few months of solid housing data, this report sticks out like a sore thumb to investors.

Greece Still in the Spotlight

As has been the case for the better part of the last month, Greece was once again called into the spotlight this week thanks to some comments from high-ranking government officials. Basically, the Greek government has come to the consensus that if a deal with IMF and the EU is not reached by the end of May, they very well may default on loan obligations.

Greece has been in negotiations with the aforementioned organizations for some time now, but progress made has been limited to say the least. Going forward, I am interested to see what becomes of Greece as a country. As of now, the prevailing belief is that if Greece is unable to honor its loan obligations, the Mediterranean country will be forced out of the EU. This is something that investors are curious about as many have no idea what it might mean for the wider marketplace.

Looking ahead to next week, it is imperative that investors begin preparing themselves for the next FOMC meeting. This meeting, though important, is not expected to bring about much in the way of new information. I expect that the Fed will allude to the fact that they might not raise interest rates, but I would not be surprised to see them avoid the subject altogether. Right now is an interesting time for the global marketplace, and one that will very likely determine the landscape of the investing world going forward.

For gold and silver, there is absolutely no way to tell what the future holds. Last week’s solid gains were diminished this week, but metals are still in a decent position overall so it will be interesting to see what happens.

On the final day of this trading week both gold and silver are conceding value. With that said, however, the last week has been extremely beneficial for gold and silver, though gains really happened during but one trading session. This week played host to a good bit of economic data, but most of it came from the same part of the world.

As we look ahead to what the last two trading weeks of May have in store, there is a good amount for investors to look forward to. For one, the FOMC meeting, which is still two weeks away, is beginning to already consume most investor conversations. While the meeting of the Fed is always important to investors, it is seldom this heavily debated so far in advance.

Global Economic Happenings

To start off the week, investors the world over received news of yet another reduction of Chinese interest rates. Last Sunday, the central bank of China announced that it would reduce rates for the third time this year. The Chinese economy has been struggling for quite some time now, and this is just one more attempt on the part of the country’s central bank to spur economic growth. It is still early, so we will have to just wait and see if this move has any realizable impact.

A day later, on Tuesday, the global marketplace focused heavily on a debt payment that was scheduled to be made by Greece to the IMF. The payment, which totaled at multiple hundreds of billions of Euros, was widely believed to be one that Greece would not be able to honor. Much to the surprise of everyone, the payment was made on time and the market’s nerves were assuaged.

Going forward, however, we will continue to keep a close eye on Greece as they have many more debt payments to make before all is said and done. In case you do not remember, Greece missing even one payment may very well result in their exit from the European Union—an event that would take the global marketplace very much by surprise.

US Economic Data Mostly Mixed

This week saw a good amount of economic data dealt by the United States. Before the data was released, investors had nothing more to do than reflect on the past few weeks’ and months’ worth of data that really, in truth, missed the mark by a mile.
Straight off the bat, things did not get any better from a US data perspective seeing as retail sales during April ticked downward slightly from the month before. Expectations were for a rise of .2%, so this report was a major miss. On the same day, the market was dealt a producer prices reading from the US that also failed to live up to expectations. Today brought about even more poor data in the form of downbeat industrial production figures from April and a consumer sentiment that is slowly but surely souring.

The one bright spot, from an economic data standpoint, that we were dealt this week came yesterday in the form of the most recent weekly jobless claims report. Despite expectations for the number of claims to be right around 275,000, the actual figures came back at 264,000. This is not only good news, it marks the third week in a row during which unemployment claims did not exceed expectations. This did not do gold and silver any favors, but also didn’t take away from this being a wholly positive week. The real test will be to see if metals can hang on to this week’s gains through next week.

This week has proven to be quite interesting for precious metals. Monday and Tuesday saw healthy gains, but before long those gains were whittled away until the week was mostly a wash. On the whole, we really didn’t witness all that much in the way of economic data. Instead, we saw a marketplace that was mostly concerned with the US Labor Department report that was due out today.

Some other US economic data was dealt, but it really failed to move the marketplace all that much. Looking ahead to next week, we will naturally see some delayed reaction to today’s jobs data as well as be on the receiving end of some more economic data from last month.

All Eyes On US Jobs Data

Even before today, the talk across the global marketplace was always relating to what this week’s jobs data would look like. On Wednesday, we were given a small taste in the form of the ADP employment report for April. For those that have done this before, you know that the ADP employment report is not nearly as heavily weighted as the Labor Department’s. Still, investors like to see this report in order to gauge what they can expect to see come Friday.

When the ADP report was released, investors and analysts the world over were shocked to see job growth figures of just over 140,000. Considering expectations were for well over 200,000, you can see why Wednesday’s report unnerved quite a few investors.
Only a day later, on Thursday, nerves were calmed a bit on the word that weekly jobless claims from a week ago echoed the previous week’s 15-year low. Seen as a much more accurate and official gauge on employment, the weekly jobless claims instill some faith that today’s report would, in fact, come near or exceed the growth expectation of 240,000+ jobs having been created in April.

US Dollar Bounces Back to Close Out Week

For the past few weeks, the US Dollar has been bouncing around between gains and losses. Just this week, the USD Index would go from massive loss one day to decent gain the next. While all this price action may be confusing, it seems as though the greenback has, in fact, put in a market top and is slowly but surely correcting itself lower.

While this week’s jobs data may have some impact on the outlook on the USD, the overriding belief is that the near-term future may not be so kind. Still, the Dollar is expected to move well above the Euro by year’s end, so maybe this is nothing more than a momentary hiccup preceding a much longer move forward.

For the most part this week Europe was quiet and devoid of many economic talking points. German 10-year bond yields backed down from record highs upon the release of last week’s jobless claims report, but other than that things remained mostly quiet overseas. Interestingly, no news was emitted from the situation surrounding Greek debt talks. As a very important situation for the entire continent, we will be sure to get you the latest updates on Greek debt negotiations next week.