Precious metals finished the week moving downward for yet another day. This week, though fragmented, offered up much of the same as far as precious metals are concerned. The fact that so many investors think interest rates will be raised before the end of the year is something that is keeping precious metals subdued. In addition to interest rate speculation, investors are seeing gold and silver suffer from a lack of any fundamental news that might spur safe-haven demand or anything else that would push spot values upward.

Upbeat US Economic Data Reported

Though this week was fragmented due to the US celebration of the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, there was still some important economic data in play. For one, home prices rose in September at a rate that was far faster than anyone anticipated. This was interpreted as good news as investors the world over are well-aware of the fact that it is going to take strong data on the part of the US housing sector in order to force the Fed to raise interest rates.

In a separate report, third-quarter GDP for the United States was revised upward to show a rise in US GDP of more than 2%. Previous figures had shown that US GDP grew by just around 1.5%, so it is really encouraging to see the figures revised upward. As for how this all relates to interest rate hike speculation, it is safe to say that any upbeat US economic data will more than likely further the belief that interest rates in the United States will be raised before the end of the year.

Turkey, Russia Conflict Takes Center Stage

Another major story from this week was one relating to the Turkish downing of a Russian bomber near the Turkey-Syria border. According to reports, the Russian SU-24 was performing a bombing mission over Syria when it strayed into Turkish airspace and refused to leave. Eventually, scrambling Turkish F-16 fighter jets were dispatched to down the noncompliant aircraft.

This situation seems like a fairly cut and dry one, but when you consider the fact that Russia and Turkey are indirectly fighting each other in Syria, it becomes a bit more interesting. In the immediate wake of the aircraft’s downing, precious metals saw their spot values improve thanks to increased safe-haven demand. This demand was created, in part, due to some belief that the downing of the Russian bomber would become more than an isolated incident. Now a few days later, it seems as though cooler heads will prevail and that no escalation of violence will come as a result of this incident.

Thanks to Thursday of this week being a US holiday, trading through the latter half of the week has been extremely quiet and subdued. People have, instead of going to work, opted to spend many of these days with friends and family, so it is difficult to take anything substantial away from the last few days. As we look ahead to next week and the dawn of December, things are sure to get a good bit more interesting as far as the interest rate hike discussion is concerned. With so many people expecting rates to be risen this month for the first time in nearly a decade, the next few weeks are sure to be exciting. Unfortunately for gold and silver, there is little upside to look forward to so long as rates are expected to be hiked.

Precious metals spent most of this past 5-day trading session losing value thanks to strengthened beliefs that the Federal Reserve will move to boost interest rates before the end of the year. All in all, this week was fairly lackluster from an economic data standpoint and mostly saw the US Dollar move forward most days. Currently, both the US Dollar and US equities are performing extremely well, and I do not see that changing anytime in the near future.

Paris Attacks Fail to Move Metals Much

Last Saturday, ISIS-connected attackers shocked the city of Paris, France by setting off multiple explosions and going on shooting rampages that lasted hours. With nearly 150 people now deceased, the world is in shock and quite fearful that other attacks may happen in the near future. Under normal conditions, these attacks would spark safe-haven demand for metals that would likely boost spot values. Currently, however, with investors convinced that interest rates will be hiked before the end of the year the spot values of gold and silver are having a difficult time moving anywhere other than downward.

You see, when there is a threat of largescale violence or war, investors retreat to precious metals in order to safeguard their wealth. Judging from the reactions in the wake of the Paris attacks, investors not only do not think a largescale war will break out, they also believe that raised interest rates are going to have more of an impact on the marketplace than any potential war with ISIS would.

Anti-terror operations are taking place all over Europe and the US in an effort to thwart any further attacks. These operations will be closely eyed by the market, but are thus far not having much of an impact on spot values.

US Housing Starts Fall, Housing Market Doing Well

A report published earlier in the week showed that housing starts in the US during October fell by nearly 2%. This is a bigger decline than what was expected, and was, for some, unsettling news. Fortunately, however, this poor batch of data was more or less offset by the fact that permits for new homes jumped up during October and are expected to continue to rise. Being that the Federal Reserve has, time and time again, maintained that the housing market needs to improve before rates are raised, this batch of data is being interpreted as being positive.

Finally, rounding out the week on Thursday was the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting. After picking the minutes apart, investors have come to the conclusion that the Fed seems intent on raising rates before the end of the year. Barring any major, unforeseen economic developments, conditions seem ok enough for rates to be risen. If you can remember, rates were reduced to near-0 levels back in 2008 in order to help the US economy fight back against the burgeoning global recession. Now that most are in agreement that the US economy has since recovered enough that rates can be lifted. The only fear tied with lifting rates, however, is the possible negative side effects it will have for US economic growth going forward.

As we look ahead to next week, I anticipate that things will be generally quiet as Americans gear up to celebrate the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Some economic data will trickle in, but the focus will remain on what might possibly be happening to interest rates in the US by the end of December.

Gold and silver surged forward on Friday to close out positively a week that was, otherwise, a massive disappointment. Even in the wake of today’s gains, the market is currently stacked against precious metals and I do not see today’s gains being sustained for any extended period of time. Through the first four days of this week, gold and silver were looking at fairly large losses.

The theme of this week was the sheer quantity of economic reports published from the United States. Monday through Thursday offered a mixed bag of data, while Friday came forth and let down the entire marketplace with a report on employment that was far more disappointing than anyone could have expected.

US Jobs Data Misses the Mark

In the lead-up to Friday, the focus of the market remained on economic data from the United States. Today, the Labor Department released its report on employment growth for the US during September and what it showed was that the US is not immune from the economic slowdown that seems to be affecting the rest of the world.

Despite expectations of job growth of more than 200,000, the actual figures showed that fewer than 150,000 jobs were actually created last month. In addition to that, the outlook on employment in the United States took an even bigger hit thanks to the last two months employment reports being revised downward by nearly 60,000. The report kept getting worse as it was reported that wages took a step backwards during the month of September. All in all, we are seeing that perhaps the US economy is not necessarily immune from the effects of a global economic slowdown.

As for interest rates, today’s data delivered a blow to the expectations that rates will be risen before the end of the year. Though the latest commentary from the Fed holds that rates will be risen this year, I am beginning to have my doubts.

US Manufacturing Sector Takes Steps Backwards

Another important report this week came out on Thursday in the form of the ISM’s report on manufacturing in the United States. Basically, the report held that September saw manufacturing in the US take a significant step backwards. Market experts across the globe feel that the strengthening Dollar is making it not feasible for foreign investors to purchase US-manufactured goods.

Once again, this report also indicates that the US economy may be feeling the strain of the global economic slowdown. As we move further into the month of October, you can expect that the focus on potential interest rate hikes will continue. Next week will see even more economic reports from the US published, but I highly doubt that any of them will overshadow today’s employment report from September.

For gold and silver, the conclusion of this week was bit better than the beginning, but the week was still mostly a wash. At the end of the day, when it comes to gold and silver, spot values will have a difficult time moving upward so long as investors both here and abroad expect that interest rates will be risen before the end of the year. At this point, it seems as though it is going to take something special for investors to become convinced that interest rates will not be risen this year. With the next FOMC meeting only a few weeks away, you can bet that the speculation will continue along the same path that it has been for quite some time.

Gold and silver spot values had a bit of an up and down week thanks to contradictory outlooks regarding interest rates in the United States. As you have probably gotten used to by now, the marketplace is almost exclusively concerned with what will happen to interest rates between now and the end of the year.

Another story making headlines this week was a scandal involving massive car producer Volkswagen. Though it may seem a bit odd, this story and relating scandal have had a negative impact on the spot value of platinum.

Volkswagen Scandal Pushes Platinum Downward

Platinum lost a lot of value this week thanks to a scandal that broke regarding Volkswagen allegedly cheating on US emissions tests. Emissions tests in the US, which basically test how much a given vehicle pollutes the environment, are crucial for car producers who are constantly trying to lower the emissions of their vehicles. This affects precious metals because the vehicles in question are almost all diesel vehicles, and platinum is used in diesel vehicle’s catalytic converters in order to cut down on pollution. If these accusations turn out to be true, the fear is that demand for diesel vehicles, and thus demand for platinum, will decrease dramatically. If people begin to find out that their vehicles are polluting the environment at a much higher rate than originally anticipated, what is keeping them from choosing a traditional gasoline or electric vehicle?

In addition to the VW scandal, platinum is suffering due to decreased Chinese consumption as well as overproduction of the metal in South Africa. All in all, we have seen the metal’s spot value take wild swings this week and as of the writing of this post the metal remains highly unstable.

Fed Comments on Interest Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve of the United States has been under the spotlight for the better part of the past few months. Investors the world over have been concerning themselves with when interest rates will be hiked in the United States. Earlier this week, a poll of economic experts by Reuters indicated that most people think rate hikes will take place in December. According to the poll, experts assigned a 60% probability to December rate hikes. With that being said, it is important to remember that a similar poll conducted during the Spring held that rates would be hiked in June, and that clearly did not happen.

Janet Yellen addressed the world on Thursday and indicated that so long as inflation in the US remains steady, the door is still open for 2015 rate hikes. As it stands, inflation in the US is at about .2%, which is far off from the 2% goal set forth by the Fed. Despite this, most Fed members remain confident that interest rate hikes are coming in the next three months. Atlanta’s Federal Reserve chairman Dennis Lockhart also spoke this week, and he more or less echoed Yellen’s statements. Thanks to the fact that so many economic experts think that rates will still be hiked this year, the Dollar closed out the week rallying while precious metals were left reeling. As we head into next week and the beginning of October, I find it hard to imagine that we will be focusing on much else apart from continued interest rate hike speculation.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Volkswagen scandal as well, because some reports indicate that it may be more than just the German auto manufacturer who cheated on US emissions tests. Hopefully, this story develops more during the early stages of next week so that the market has something other than US interest rates to talk about.

Precious metals finished out the week strongly thanks to a decision, or lack thereof, by the Federal Reserve of the United States. To be honest, the only thing on the mind of investors this week was the FOMC meeting for September seeing as it meant a lot to the future of interest rates in the United States.

There was also some economic data on this week’s slate, but it was mostly overshadowed by the fact that most every investor was concerned with what the Fed might have to say.

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged

For months, the market has been pondering the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. In case you were unaware, rates in the US have been kept at near-0 levels for nearly a decade. Thanks to continuously improving economic conditions in the United States, the move to raise rates seems like the logical step for the Fed to take.

For more than 6 months now, investors have been pointing to this week’s Fed meeting as the likely time when interest rates might be raised. The meeting kicked off this week on Wednesday and as expected the global marketplace was generally quiet as investors awaited the Fed’s decision. Come Thursday, the Fed announced that rates would be kept at current levels thanks to uncertainty stemming from recent action in China. Basically, the Fed said that while US economic growth is suitable for rate hikes, the overall global marketplace is too volatile. Pointing directly to China and their economic slowdown, the Fed simply isn’t comfortable with raising rates at this particular point in time.

Continuing their statement, the Fed went on to say that while they are not raising rates this month, they expect to do so before the end of the year. In response to the FOMC meeting and related statement, the value of gold and silver both shot up dramatically. Now, silver is trading at over $15/ounce and gold is making impressive strides forward as well.

US Economic Data Continues to be Upbeat

This week did not offer too much in the way of US economic data, but what data was made available came back on the upbeat side of things. First and foremost, last week’s claims for unemployment fell by more than 11,000—which was far greater than expected. In addition to that, the 4-week moving average of jobless claims fell by nearly 5,000. This moving average is seen as a more accurate gauge of how the employment sector is doing. In recent months, the outlook on employment in the US has jumped up considerably, which is something that had many investors convinced that rates might be raised this week.

In addition to that, there were reports that US households are spending more money than they have been over the past few years. The increased expendable income is being attributed to the fact that energy prices are and have been moving downward. Crude oil has been sitting at multi-month lows for a while now, and while this is dragging gold and silver down, it is helping spur along the US economy.

As we look ahead to next week, you can rest-assured that we will be talking more about interest rates and when they might be raised. Other than that, the focus of the global marketplace will be on China as their government and central bank seems to not be able to go a full week without making some sort of policy change. For gold and silver, the end of the week rally was nice to see, but many people have doubts with regard to how permanent any of these gains will be.

Precious metals backed down to conclude this week of trading. When all was said and done, these past 5 trading days have been more of a miss for precious metals than anything else. Though we have had a few days where gains were realized, most of the week has been taken over by surging stock markets and speculation regarding the potential FOMC rate hike.

Upbeat Data From European Economies

One of the major talking points this week was a slew of upbeat economic reports from all over the Eurozone. France, of all countries, emerged this week with a report claiming that their economy is improving slowly but surely. Finance ministers from the nation held that Q3 growth for this year is expected to continue along its current upward trend. Industrial production in the nation is one of the many bright spots as France tried to make its way out of years of recession and otherwise poor economic figures.

Germany also released upbeat economic reports, though this was not quite as surprising seeing as the marketplace has constantly touted Germany as being one of the strongest performers across the EU. Finally, an upward revision to the Eurozone’s Q2 GDP data gave investors confidence that Europe may actually be showing nice signs of improvement. As we move forward it will be interesting to see just how much better the EU economy will be.

FOMC Meeting Speculation

Another mainstay across the marketplace this week was speculation regarding if and when interest rates in the United States will be raised. This has been a topic of discussion for some time now, but with so many fingers having been pointed to September’s FOMC meeting, investors are hoping to hear some concrete info with regard to the future of rate hikes.

On one hand, most of the market is convinced that we will wait at least another month until rates are increased, though some investors are still hanging on to the belief that rates will be risen come next week. With the turbulent nature of recent economic conditions, I can see why the Fed is being hesitant to raise interest rates. Still, the US economy and especially the labor market is peforming extremely well, and with that being one of the prerequisites for raised interest rates, that is why so many people think next week might be the week.

On Thursday, the labor market got yet another boost as it was announced that weekly jobless claims fell by more than 5,000 last week. Jobless claims seem to be on an almost consistent downward trend, and that is something that very much helps the idea that rates will be moved forward. On the other hand, all of this talk regarding China’s instability and their constantly changing monetary policies is something that makes rat hikes a bit less likely. When it comes down to it, very few people know what is going on.

As we look ahead to the forthcoming week, I have a hard time imagining that we will be talking about much else besides rate hikes. I have a difficult time believing that anything happening early next week will sway the Feds ultimate decision one way or another, but that much remains to be seen. What we do know, however, is that next week is already shaping up to be an eventful one.

Precious metals have spent most of this week on the decline as the market goes back and forth on what it thinks about potential interest rate hikes. While gains happened on a few days, those were almost always outdone, and most often only a day later. Gold and silver are in a bit of a state of limbo at present, with some investors thinking that volatile market conditions make investing in precious metals appropriate, while others see soon-to-be rising interest rates as a reason to stay away from both gold and silver.

As we head further into the month of September, the focus of the marketplace will be on the upcoming FOMC meeting, which has been on the minds of investors for months now. Ever since the start of the summer, investors and market experts have been pointing to September’s FOMC meeting as the likely time when interest rates would be raised. Though a lot has happened in recent history to alter that belief to some extent, there is still a lot of people who are expecting to hear a raised interest rates announcement come September 16th/17th.

US Jobs Data Disappoints

On Friday, the US Labor Department released its non-farms payrolls report for the month of August. Earlier in the week, investors were a bit unnerved to find that the ADP report on private sector job growth came back mightily disappointing. Though that report almost never has a direct bearing on the Labor Department’s jobs data, this time around it did. Today, the report from the Labor Department indicated that just fewer than 175,000 new jobs were added to the economy during the month of August.

Considering expectations were for job additions of 220,000 or more, it is clear to see how this data is being perceived as disappointing. Now, the fact that jobs data was less than encouraging, investors are once again expressing concerns over whether or not the Fed will be able to raise interest rates. Now, the investing world is going to turn its attention to the FOMC meeting that is scheduled to take place roughly two weeks from now. The speculation is raging and the market is split between some people thinking that interest rates will be risen this month while others think that they will be risen a few months from now.

China’s Stock Markets Weighing on the Rest of the World

This week once again saw the market focus on what is happening, or not happening, in the Chinese economy. We received some PMI information which indicated that the Chinese manufacturing sector is experiencing some contraction. It has been no secret that the Chinese economy has been under pressure recently, and now the world is beginning to take notice. Just this week, China’s main stock index fell by more than 1% and brought global stock markets with them. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy, it is unclear what to expect going forward. Thanks to this uncertainty, many investors believe that it will be difficult for the Fed to pull the trigger on raising interest rates this month.

Looking ahead to the next two weeks, you can expect that the market will continue to place its undivided attention on any and all US economic data. The Iran nuclear deal, and all that it may bring with it, is another thing that will be paid attention to over the next few weeks as well. It will be interesting to see if and when Iranian crude oil is allowed on Western markets, because it is likely to be happening sometime soon.

Precious metals opened up the week in poor fashion and things really didn’t get much better from there. A quick look at a weekly chart will show you that any and all gains a week ago and the week prior to that were done away with. Now sitting at multi-month lows, the investing world is wondering what it is to do with precious metals. For now, the interest simply isn’t there and that much is killing spot values. Add to this the fact that some other leading commodities are performing poorly and the current state of precious metals might make complete sense.

As for the happenings of the past 5 days, almost none of them had anything to do with gold and silver. Instead, investors had their attention drawn to a lot of activity in China as well as some important economic data from the United States. We are soon going to be bringing August to a close, and what only a few weeks ago looked like a positive month for gold and silver spot values is quickly transitioning into anything but that.

Chinese Stock Sell-Off

The first story to dominate headlines this week was with regard to a Chinese stock sell-off the likes of which we have not seen in quite some time. China’s primary stock index lost more than 6% of its value to begin the week, and such a poor performance almost seamlessly transitioned overseas to US markets. As such, the first few days of this trading week were particularly hard on precious metals as well as stocks. Seeing as China is one of the biggest consumers of gold and silver on an annual basis, any economic downturn there has the potential to bring spot values downward.

After such a dramatic downturn on the part of Chinese stocks, Chinese policymakers were called into action. On Tuesday, it was announced that for the fifth time since November 2014, China would be slashing its interest rates and reducing the reserve requirement ratios for banks. These moves were all made in an effort to pumping a floundering economy with life-sustaining cash.
Unfortunately, China’s move to slash rates only worked to unsettle the belief that interest rates in the US were going to be risen in September for the first time in more than a half decade. In addition to this, comments made later on in the week by a high-ranking member of the Fed alluded that we may have to wait at least another month until we see interest rates risen. This, along with a general settling of the global marketplace, allowed for stocks and the US Dollar to get back on track to close out an otherwise bumpy week.

US Q2 GDP Revised Upward

After the first and second quarters of this year failed to overly impress from a GDP standpoint, some people were seriously calling into question the actual strength of the US economy. Today, many of those doubters were aptly served via a revision to Q2 GDP data.

Despite prior readings showing economic growth in the second quarter of more than 2%, the revised figures show that the US economy actually grew by more than 3.5% during the second quarter of this year. This massive revision boosted the general confidence of the American investing public. This, coupled with the fact that interest rates may be risen later than expected, ended up giving stocks and the Dollar a boost to close out the week. For gold and silver, these events were mostly non-factors, but, if anything, they worked against prospects. As we head into next week and the month of September, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the possibility of not seeing boosted interest rates.

For precious metals, this ended up being a positive 5-day trading session despite factors that may have led you to believe otherwise. We were dealt a good bit of economic data, but as has been the case recently, most of it was upbeat in nature.

As far as reports from other parts of the world are concerned, there really weren’t all that many to speak of. Greece’s parliament finally approved the latest EU bailout deal and it seems as though they will be able to make a scheduled debt repayment that totals in the multiple billions of euros. Going forward, however, I do anticipate that some way or another Greece will make its way back into the headlines.

FOMC Still Upbeat on US Economy

The biggest happening of the week came in the form of the most recent FOMC meeting as well as the release of the minutes from July’s FOMC meeting. All in all, the minutes from July showed a Fed that is growing in confidence of the strength of the US economy. Citing a large batch of economic data over the course of the course of the summer, many members of the Fed seemed to have alluded that September is the time we will see rate hikes.

With that being said, however, the market is somewhat divided in their thinking regarding rate hikes. Thanks to China’s move last week to devalue their currency, the Yuan, many investors and economic experts feel as though the global economy is too fragile for the US to be able to raise rates. The Fed and recent economic data assuaged fears that a September rate hike is too soon, but that thought has not completely gone away just yet.

Moving forward, the eyes of the market will remain on US economic data because it is seen as the driving force behind whether or not interest rates will be risen.

Upbeat Economic Data Dealt

This week played host to a good bit of economic data, most of which was closely eyed by the market for obvious reasons. First, there was a report stating that July saw the highest number of new housing starts in more than 7 years. With more people employed and the economy hitting on all cylinders, people feel comfortable enough to commit to purchases as large as a home.
Only a day later, it was reported that consumer prices in July upticked by .1%. This rise was in line with expectations and shows that inflation is not an overly large concern for the US economy, at least at the present moment in time.

As for what all this data means, that much is tough to say. In general, the upbeat nature of recent economic data means that investors will be more likely to subscribe to the belief that rates will be risen in September, but does not guarantee such a subscription. For this reason, economic data will continued to be closely monitored by the market as investors feel there is no such thing as a sure-thing without the Fed out and out saying it.

Looking ahead to next week and what it holds, I am not expecting much in the way of big news. We will be dealt a good bit of economic data from around the world, but at this point it is not so easy to tell which reports will be hawked over and which ones will be seen as non-factors. For gold and silver, this week’s gains were encouraging, but the market is still working against the progress of both gold and silver.

This week was relatively uneventful, but for precious metals it was the first week of gains we have seen in quite some time. A good bit of economic data from the US was released, but the attention of the market was fixated on some happenings taking place in China. The outlook on interest rate hikes was somewhat altered, but by the end of the week US economic data once again had investors thinking that interest rates would be raised by September.

As we look ahead to the second half of the month of August, I am not expecting there to be all that much in the way of markets-moving economic data. Instead, you will likely see investors the world over paying close attention to any and all market activity happening in the United States.

China Opts to Devalue Yuan

Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, the global marketplace was taken aback by the fact that China acted to devalue their currency for the first time in a few years. Not only was the market not expecting to see the Yuan devalued, they were definitely not expecting it be devalued by the 1.9% which it was. Naturally, this move made by the People’s Bank of China caught the investing world off guard and ended up having a negative impact on US stocks as well as the US Dollar. Things only got more confusing on Wednesday when the People’s Bank decided to further reduce the Yuan’s value.

For gold and silver, all this turmoil happening across China acted as a propellant that pushed spot values forward. The reason behind China’s move to devalue the Yuan is an effort to make the Chinese economy more competitive. By doing this, Chinese exports are seen as cheaper in the eyes of foreign investors and purchasers. Going forward, it will be interesting to see what kind of impact China’s policy shifts have on the US economy. At present, there are many people who think that China’s moves may end up having a negative impact on the timing of interest rate hikes.

US Economic Data Comes Back Upbeat

After taking a hit thanks to the China news, the US Dollar and stocks in the US ticked back upward upon the release of the most recent retail sales from the month of July. During July, it was reported by the US Commerce Department that retail sales did extremely well. Out of 13 total retail sales categories, the Commerce Department reported that 11 saw nice gains.

In addition to that, it was also reported that weekly jobless claims from last week ticked upward by 5,000. Though it is never good to see claims for unemployment benefits move upward, it was encouraging to see the monthly moving average of jobless claims hit a 15-year low. The outlook on interest rates was revived thanks to this data, and once again the market has become convinced that September is the time when we will see interest rates hiked.

Going forward, economic data from the US will continue to be one of the biggest factors paid attention to by the market. Interest rate hikes are going to remain the hot topic of discussion across the global market, but I do not envision the outlook on rate hikes changing without any earth-shattering development somewhere across the global marketplace. So long as interest rate hikes are expected, it is going to be difficult for gold and silver to make any significant gains.