Gold and silver were down yet again this Friday, though only slightly. After today’s November employment report beat market expectations investors the world over were expecting to see gold and silver take a large dip in value, but such was not the case. Thanks to more bargain-hunting buying by those who feel gold and silver have reached the bottom of their respective markets precious metals were able to avert total disaster on the last day of the first full week of December.

As we look ahead to the coming weeks, the upcoming FOMC policy meeting will be of utmost importance to investors. After having this weekend to digest the last five days’ economic data, we will have much clearer picture with regard to what the marketplace thinks about precious metals. Currently, the diminishing risk-averse attitude is being blamed for gold and silver losing a lot of value over the past few weeks. Barring any major shifts in economic data out of the US over the coming few weeks, gold and silver will likely continue to be at the whim of the same market bears who have been in control since the latter stages of November.

Friday’s Economic Data

In the lead-up to this week it was no secret that investors had to prepare themselves for a large offering of economic data. Among these pieces of economic data were the Federal Reserve’s beige book, the ADP employment report, a US GDP report, and a few others. Overshadowing all other economic data this week, however, was the employment report for this past November.

While the marketplace was expecting to see non-farm payrolls rise to the tune of about 175,000 or so, the actual figures blew market expectations out of the water. The Labor Department’s official statistics showed that 204,000 non-farm payrolls were added to the US economy in November. This news initially caused gold to sink to a new 5-month low, but that move was quickly counteracted by the large number of bargain-hunters who subsequently made their way to the market.

As we move into next week, the final week before December’s FOMC meeting, investors the world over will be speculating with regard to the exact timing of Quantitative Easing tapering. While a strong contingent of investors believe that the tapering of QE will be announced at this month’s meeting, more investors are looking to the upcoming January, February, and possible even March FOMC meetings as potential times when QE will be tapered.

Gold and silver performed a bit better this week, though, to be fair, neither metal made any gains worth getting too excited about. After a quiet middle of the week due to the observance of the American Thanksgiving holiday, Friday saw gold and silver make marginal gains thanks to a weaker US Dollar. Market bears are still very much in control of the marketplace, meaning it will be difficult for gold and silver to ever make any gains in this type of atmosphere.

Investors will be happy to see November come to a close as it was a dismal month for both gold and silver.

Better European Union Unemployment Report

Though Friday is expected to be a quiet trading day across the board, some better than expected unemployment figures were released in the early morning hours. Compared to an EU unemployment rate of 10.2% in September, October’s unemployment was recorded as being .1% lower at 10.1%. This may not seem like a major decline, and in reality it isn’t, but its worth talking about because EU unemployment is at its lowest level since April of 2011.

The good news came in abundance on Friday as inflation was reported as up to .9% in November from a previous recording of .7% in October. This news helped alleviate fears that the EU may be slipping into a period of heavy deflation. Though this news was good for most markets, it did not move gold or silver all that much.

As we bring the month of November to a close, investors will be happy to see the calendar turn. All in all this month has done nothing but cause problems for investors as both gold and silver lost fairly significant amounts of value. The spot price of gold has declined by nearly $100 while silver lost over $3. With the upcoming December FOMC meeting at the top of every investors’ list of concerns, expect the speculation to heat up over the next few weeks.

Gold and silver had another downbeat week this week as the FOMC minutes ended up being more bearish than what was anticipated. It was unfortunate for gold and silver investors because the only news of the week, the FOMC minutes, ended up being a bearish factor.

In fact, the only other bigs economic news of the week was the preliminary HSBC manufacturing report from China, which also came back weaker than expected. Next week is the last week of November, and with it being a holiday week in the United States it is likely that investor attention will stray far from continued talk with regard to US monetary policy and its possible upcoming changes.

Bearish FOMC Minutes

In the lead-up to this week, there was a fairly distinct divide amongst investors. One side believed that Quantitative Easing, the Fed’s $85 billion dollar a month bond buying program, would be tapered before the end of this year, while the other side held to the notion that the current rate of growth exhibited by the US economy is not robust enough to merit a tapering of QE. Knowing that, it is easy to see why this week’s FOMC minutes were of such importance to investors of all walks of life.

When the minutes were finally released on Wednesday they made it clear that a majority of the FOMC was in favor of tapering QE “at one of the next few meetings.” This did paint a clearer picture with regard to when QE would be tapered, though investors were not sure whether to interpret the minutes as meaning that QE will be tapered in December or sometime in early 2014. What was clear, however, was that the minutes were in no way favorable for precious metals. In fact, in the hours after the minutes were released, gold and silver suffered their biggest losses from this whole 5 day session.

As we move forward into the last week of November, it is likely that investors will continue to discuss Quantitative Easing’s possible future. With the US looking forward to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, there can be little doubt that it will be a mostly quiet week.

Gold and silver had a lackluster week as losses persisted for the second consecutive 5-day session. To be fair, precious metals never really had a chance to make any gains due to a quieter world marketplace.

The biggest news story of the week involved statements made by Ben Bernanke’s possible successor as chairperson of the Federal Reserve.

Janet Yellen’s Statements

If you have never heard of Janet Yellen now might be a good time to acquaint yourself. As it stands she is the most likely person to succeed Ben Bernanke as the chairperson of the US Federal Reserve. Due to this fact, she was scheduled to speak in front of the US Senate Banking Committee this week, and what she said was a bit surprising to many.

In her statements, Ms. Yellen claimed that the unemployment rate is not low enough nor is economic growth robust enough for the Fed to taper Quantitative Easing. She maintained that while the US economy has undoubtedly shown signs of increased strength as of late, there is still room for improvement. Her remarks were favorable for precious metals which experienced modest gains on the day.

A day later, Janet Yellen answered questions from US Senators and her remarks echoed the ones she made a day earlier. Despite her comments, gold and silver still ended up having a fairly disappointing week. The US Dollar is still strong and there are still plenty of people who believe QE will be tapered at the December FOMC meeting, both of which are putting heavy downward pressure on gold and silver.

In other news, the EU’s 3rd-quarter GDP was released late this week and it showed some less than stellar annualized growth. When compared to last year’s 3rd quarter, the EU only improved by a margin of .4%. While any growth is positive, this year’s third quarter growth was .8% weaker than the second quarter’s. The weak GDP data more or less validated the ECB’s recent decision to cut the regions key lending rate. It must also be noted that there is a fairly strong contingent who believes that the ECB decision will translate into more of a time allowance before the FOMC has to decide what to do with QE.

Gold and silver have suffered significant losses this week after a somewhat surprising outcome from the European Central Bank meeting. Not only that, but this week saw the US Dollar make significant gains against the euro currency,

All US economic data released this week was positive, giving more strength to the notion that the FOMC may need to taper QE before the end of the year.

European Central Bank Meeting

European Central Bank policy meetings can be accurately equated to FOMC meetings in the US. This week’s ECB meeting was greeted with a large amount of speculation due to the fact that there was a strong contingent of investors and market experts who believed that the ECB would slash its key lending rate.

When the meeting did take place, not too many people were surprised to see the ECB cut its key lending rate by .25% to .25%. This news initially helped boost the spot values of gold and silver, but after only a short while all gains were reverted due to a declining euro currency. The euro’s decline prompted the US Dollar to make substantial gains, which in turn put heavy downward pressure on gold and silver.

In other news out of Europe, Standard & Poors credit agency reduced France’s credit rating to a new rating of AA. Standard & Poors cited France’s inability to keep control over their government spending as the reason for the credit rating reduction.

More Positive US Economic Data

After the end of the recent government shutdown many had expected subsequent US economic data to be poor. However, the opposite has proven to be true as most economic reports since the shutdown have been positive. This week alone saw two incredibly important reports come in far better than expected.

First was the annualized 3rd-quarter GDP report. While the marketplace expected GDP to rise by 2%-2.5%, actual figures came in closer to growth in the neighborhood of 2.8%. Today, on the last day of the week, October’s employment report was released. The market had expected non-farm payrolls to rise by about 120,000 but actual figures showed a rise of over 200,000. This beat expectations by a long shot and strengthened the belief that the Fed may taper QE before the year’s end.

Gold and silver both finished the week in unimpressive fashion as a bearish FOMC statement has investors worried about carrying gold and silver with them into the near-term future. While the early stages of the week saw gold and silver remain mostly flat, Thursday brought about some hefty losses thanks to the FOMC statement.

In other news, plenty of economic data was released this week out of both Europe and the United States.

What the FOMC Meeting Means for Gold and Silver

In the days preceding the latest FOMC meeting, investors were confident that the Fed would not touch Quantitative Easing, the current monetary policy. When the FOMC’s latest meeting kicked off on Tuesday and subsequently concluded on Wednesday, investor’s expectations were met. The fact that QE had been retained was initially positive for precious metals spot values, though the Fed’s post-meeting statement proved otherwise. In this statement it was made clear that while the US economy is not strong enough to warrant a reduction or tapering of QE, it is still significantly stronger than it was only a few months ago.

This statement, coupled with the fact that Ben Bernanke was unavailable for comment, was perceived by the marketplace as bearish for precious metals. Instead of investors thinking that monetary policy in the US won’t be touched until the middle of next year, the growing belief is that the Fed may still be able to taper QE before the end of this year. In fact, many have pointed towards December’s Fed meeting as a possible time when they could execute a change to QE. As of now however, anything market experts say or believe regarding QE’s future will be nothing more than speculation.

US Economic Data

Despite the fact that investor attention was almost solely focused on the FOMC meeting, this week had its fair share of US economic data to offer. First was October’s employment report which came in weaker than expected. Compared to market expectations of a 150,000 rise in non-farm payrolls for October, the actual report indicated that payrolls only rose by about 130,000.

On the other hand, this week’s jobless claims report showed that there were 10,000 less people filing for unemployment this week. These two stories were important to investors, though they didn’t do much in the way of affecting precious metals’ spot values.

Gold and silver had positive weeks, though the gains both metals made were nothing extraordinary. After the early week brought us the delayed employment report from this past September, its weaker than expected figures initially helped boost spot values considerably. However, in the following few days, profit-taking and technical corrections saw both gold and silver stagnate for the most part.

Rising short-term interest rates as well as an overheating housing market in China are causing investors to pay more attention to the Asian marketplace. With that being said, all news out of Asia is not worrisome, seen in that this week yielded some generally upbeat economic reports.

China Inching Towards the Spotlight

Since the government shutdown has finally passed, this week called for investors to focus their attention somewhere other than the Continental United States. The big draw this week was the rapid rising of short-term interest rates and the overheating housing market in China. If the rise in interest rates is sustained over a longer period of time, market experts are beginning to think that there is going to be a need for Chinese monetary officials to tighten monetary policy. If this is the case, it is believed that overall consumer demand out of China will be diminished significantly. Such a decrease in demand could cause the spot prices of gold and silver to decline as China is a particularly large consumer of precious metals, being that they are the world’s second-largest economy.

As far as economic data out of China is concerned, it was quite positive. For one, October’s manufacturing PMI for China rose by almost a whole point when compared to September’s. Such an increase is indicative of a growing economy and helped boost most markets, including the precious metals market.

Over the coming days and weeks we will continue to analyze the ongoing interest rate scenario in China to see if, how, and when it will affect the precious metals market.

US Dollar Losing Value Steadily

The US Dollar has been steadily declining in value since the government shutdown came to fruition at the beginning of the month. Even though the shutdown has passed us, the Dollar is suffering due to the expected negative consequences that the government shutdown will yield in regards to 4th-quarter GDP growth.

This means that in the immediate future, the outlook on the US Dollar is a bleak one. While the euro had initially been the recipient of large gains in the wake of a declining US Dollar, weaker economic data out of Europe this week has slowed down the euro’s progress.

Gold and silver posted moderate losses this week as the US’ partial government shutdown stole the headlines all week long. The shutdown is now in its 11th day and at present there is no real sign that we will see an end anytime soon. In fact, some people closely following the situation referred to both Democrats and Republicans as “digging their heels in”, meaning that both sides seem to be gearing up for the long haul.

While the partial government shutdown is bad enough, another issue began to creep its way into headlines as more and more people began noticing the fast approaching debt ceiling deadline. If the US cannot raise its debt ceiling by October 17th the country will begin to default on loan obligations. The fact that the government has been shutdown, with almost 100% of its limited attention going towards the budget issue makes it hard to believe that the United States’ lawmakers have even thought about the debt ceiling. At first, it was anticipated that shutdown would only last a day or two, but now that it is in its 11th day, it is becoming a real possibility that the shutdown and debt ceiling being reached will overlap.

This whole government shutdown is being followed by more than solely Americans, as the US government and its actions have the ability to make an impact on markets all over the world. Throughout the duration of the shutdown, most markets have suffered, but recently precious metals have been hit particularly hard. The world economic marketplace is showing signs of anxiety and so long as the US government remains stagnant, that anxiety will inch ever closer to panic. The one bright side that can be potentially taken from this situation is that if the debt ceiling deadline and the shutdown overlap, it is likely that gold and silver will finally experience the increased safe-haven demand we have been expecting.

With that being said, you may be wondering why precious metals have not already experienced a spike in safe-haven demand. The answer to that inquiry is not an easy one, though many market experts have reasoned that since we have known about the budget deadline and debt ceiling for such a long time, the shock that is usually associated with these events was not present. Instead, the government shutdown was treated like an expected event and the debt ceiling is being looked at as if it is never going to happen. To this day, investors are convinced that Dems and Republicans will come together and reach a budget deal in time to avoid any worldwide economic panic. Though this is a widely held belief, I, personally, am not holding my breath.

Unless you have been living under a rock recently, odds are pretty good that you have heard plenty about the US government shutdown. The shutdown, which is now in its 4th day, has a firm stranglehold on this week’s news.

Though a complete and total government shutdown sounds a bit terrifying to some, the reality is that it is only a partial shutdown. Officially, only non-essential government entities are being forced to close, this includes National Parks, monuments, and certain agencies. Those parts of the government which have been determined to be absolutely vital have been retained and will be throughout the duration of the shutdown, however long that might be. The interesting part of this whole shutdown is that the highest paid government employees are still receiving their paychecks, while some of the lowest paid employees have been ushered out of work until this shutdown ends. With such ample time to prepare, it is absolutely mind-boggling that the US government is forcing this shutdown upon itself.

In terms of gold and silver, the original school of thought was one that assumed a government shutdown would see gold and silver take on their roles as safe-haven assets. When the shutdown ensued, however, precious metals reacted quite differently by declining in value almost immediately. This is not surprising as almost every market took a hit in the immediate aftermath of the shutdown. The world economic atmosphere is showing signs of worry and if the world economy is thrown into a panic there is no saying what the fate of precious metals will be.

As of now, the retained Quantitative Easing initiative is working in gold and silver’s collective favor as an underlying bullish factor for the metals. As market become increasingly volatile due to this shutdown, more and more people will begin to look at precious metals as a way of protecting their assets. Keep your eyes and ears posted on the news this weekend because even though the work week is over, there is still a chance we might hear of some developments regarding this shutdown.

Gold and silver began this last week of August looking like they were going to build upon the previous two weeks’ gains. With the US on the verge of involving themselves in yet another war, safe-haven demand for gold spiked in the early part of the week, only to see spot prices fall back to earth once more.

Some positive economic news in the form of a better than anticipated second quarter GDP report and an increase in German business confidence was seen this week, though neither story had a major impact on the precious metals markets. As we move into September we will say goodbye to the quiet, uneventful weeks and welcome in a time of the year that will be a hotbed of economic and geopolitical happenings. All in all it was an eventful summer for metals as they declined significantly to start the summer only to climb back up once again towards the end. While today and yesterday saw spot values of precious metals take decent hits, many are convinced that gold and silver will continue to ascend in value.

US Military Intervention in Syria on the Horizon

For the last 2 years, a civil war has been going on in Syria between rebel fighters and the government regime. The war’s death-toll is constantly rising, but what is most surprising is the fact that a large quantity of the people killed have been innocent civilians, including women and children. Even though that fact alone should have been enough to see Western nations intervene in the bloody civil war, such has not happened yet.

More recently, however, allegations have been levied against the government regime which claim that the military has been using chemical weapons against its own civilians. This news was shocking to the world, especially because chemical weapons are a major red flag, even in wartime. Now, the Syrian civil war has caught the attention of Western nations, and most importantly the UN. When this week opened, the biggest news story indicated that the United Sates was on the verge of leading an allied intervention in Syria. Some people had expressed that the threat of war for the US was so imminent that we could expect attacks to take place by the end of the week.

This news helped drive up the spot values of gold and silver by making them appeal as safe-haven assets. In response to the potential of war, the USD and stocks from the US and Europe took nosedives. This saw gold and silver begin what was shaping up to be a week of solid gains, a third consecutive week at that.

Now, on Friday, it has been announced that the US and its allies are still unsure as to what they are going to do in regards to Syria. Because the threat does not seem as imminent now as it did a few days ago, the marketplace has mostly corrected itself as the USD has made up for most of its losses this week, as stocks have as well. As the US is observing the Labor Day holiday on this upcoming Monday, you can expect a quieter trading atmosphere, at least at the start of the week.