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February 21st Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver have rebounded today after losing some ground during the middle stages of the week. While it caught a lot of people off guard that gold and silver were able to ride their momentum into this week, that quickly changed as profit-taking and a slight technical correction made an appearance Tuesday through Thursday. Not only that, but some other factors were also weighing on the progress of precious metals.

There wasn’t much in the way of economic data this week, though what did make its way to the marketplace was of particular interest to most investors. As we head into the latter stages of February, it is clear to see that gold and silver have maintained their grasp on their near-term technical momentum and will look to build upon it.

Some Economic Data Amid A Mostly Quiet Week

The heading above says it all. While profit-taking and a technical correction worked against the progress made by gold and silver spot values, there really wasn’t much else going on this week. There were economic reports from the United States, but they were, for the most part, of no real importance to the investing world. With that being said, however, one report most definitely caught the attention of the investing world. The United States’ weekly jobless claims report, which has been growing worse over the past few weeks, finally decreased slightly this week. In the wake of the report the USD grew in value while the spot values of gold and silver were pressured, even if only slightly.

In other news from around the world, a weak preliminary manufacturing PMI from China also put more pressure on gold and silver. As China is the world’s largest consumer of precious metals for investing purposes, any sub-par economic news from the nation will almost always translate into downward pressure being levied against gold and silver.

Finally, violence in Ukraine between protesters and riot police has gotten considerably worse over the past few days. As more civilians are claimed victim to the violence, the world and its leaders are continuously calling upon the president of Ukraine to make decisive action in an effort to end the protests. While this situation is undeniably horrible, it is fueling safe-haven demand for gold and silver. As we head into next week, it will be interesting to see in what direction this situation heads.

February 14th Weekly Silver Market Update

Investors the world over witnessed one of the best 5-day performances by precious metals in months. Currently, spot values are the highest they have been in months and the outlook on precious metals is rapidly shifting from bleak to upbeat. This week was a generally quiet one as far as economic data was concerned, making it even more impressive that gold was able to gain over $50 while silver picked up well over a dollar. That kind of positive performance during a week with little to nothing happening makes investors salivate at the thought of a week full of bullish news for precious metals.

Some things worth mentioning that took place this week include the newly appointed Fed chairperson’s inaugural address to Congress. Also, the market was greeted with its first upbeat economic report out of China in nearly a month; unfortunately, the same cannot be said about this week’s light US economic data.

US Equities Make Their Final Push

When markets opened on Wednesday, investors were intrigued to see that gold and silver were posting gains right alongside US equity markets. Typically, whenever US stocks perform well, precious metals tend to do the opposite. This time, however, both metals and stocks were surging forward, effectively confusing the marketplace.

While this price action caused some investors to doubt the notion that US stocks have run out of gas, other market analysts were convinced that Wednesday and Thursday’s positive US stock performances were nothing more than a last push forward before equities ticked lower. Just as fate would have it, the gains stocks made over the middle stages this week have almost all been given back as of the early morning hours of Friday. Not only did Friday’s stock sell-off help metals, but so too did a weaker US Dollar. In fact, this week has played host to a variety of factors putting downward pressure on the greenback. For one, a Bank of England announcement that GDP growth is expected to exceed original forecasts prompted the GBP to gain against the USD. While the USD is still in a somewhat decent position, its comfort level seems to be slowly diminishing.

As we look ahead to next week the marketplace will be watching gold and silver spot values in order to see if metals really do have the near-term technical momentum that so many have claimed they do. Undoubtedly, next week will emit more economic news stories than this one and thus translate into a trading atmosphere that is not nearly as calm as the last 5 days have been.

February 7th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver finished off what has been a mildly impressive week in impressive fashion as both metals made gains on the back of a somewhat disappointing US jobs report for January. Though the report came back a little weaker than what was anticipated, US stocks were able to turn the last day of the week into a positive one. With recent stock sell-offs very fresh in our memories, it is interesting to see stocks make gains in the wake of a poor week of US economic data.

The European Central Bank met for their monthly policy meeting earlier this week, though no major changes came as a result. Some market analysts were expecting to see the ECB pull back interest rates as a result of better economic conditions in the region, but such was not the case. The overriding majority of the market, however, now believes the ECB may be prompted to make some sort of change to monetary policy should EU economic data remain upbeat.

Another Disappointing US Jobs Report

If you can recall to about this time a month ago, you might also remember a marketplace that was excited about the US economy and its recent performance. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, the jobs report for December caught the marketplace off guard when it came back so much weaker than what was expected. From that point on, the stability of the US economy has continually been called into question. It is for this reason and many more that this week’s employment report for January was of the utmost importance to investors.

Despite such a poor report a month ago, the market was still expecting about 190,000 jobs to have been added to the economy in January. When the report was finally published early Friday morning it disappointed investors for the second consecutive month. Compared to the expectation of 190,000+ jobs being added in January, the report indicated that, in fact, only 113,000 jobs were created.

This news prompted gold and silver to make gains and thus end the week in impressive fashion. What was confusing to many, however, was the US stock market’s positive performance in light of such a weak employment report. The free fall of US stocks we have seen over the last week or so has since calmed down, but the overall uneasiness investors have towards the US economy is still hanging around. For this reason it is fairly safe to assume that safe-haven demand for gold and silver will continue to be on the rise. Historically, whenever the US economy shows signs of instability the spot value of gold and silver tends to increase. Next week is important to investors who are wanting to know whether recently poor economic performance is an indication of an economic slowdown or simply a poor, but temporary run of form.

January 31st Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver are trading lower on Friday to bring to a close what has been a activity-filled week. After hitting a 9-week high in the early morning hours of Monday, gold  then fell significantly as a stronger US Dollar put a lot of downward pressure on the metal. Then, only a day later, gold and silver were once again on the rise as the fear of less easy money being circulated throughout the world marketplace caused investors to abandon their risk-on mindsets. In the latter stages of Wednesday, the FOMC made the not so surprising decision to taper Quantitative Easing by another $10 billion per month.

The Fed’s move has since helped the US Dollar make significant gains over the past few days. Next week’s healthy serving of US economic data will likely do well to make or break the Dollar’s impressive run.

Gold, Silver May See Safe-Haven Demand After All

Directly before the Fed made their decision to taper QE by another multi-billion dollar margin, periphery currencies like the Turkish lira as well as equities in the US and elsewhere began selling off in large quantities. This massive sell-off was being directly linked to the threat of less easy money as well as weaker economic data out of China over the course of the past few weeks. In an effort to balance their currencies and their financial markets, central banks in places like Turkey, India, South Africa, and beyond held emergency policy meetings to discuss their options. When these meetings concluded (still before the Fed made their tapering announcement), the overriding result was a raising of lending rates. Turkey led all nations by raising their key lending rate by a whopping 12%. Thankfully, these emergency central bank decision paid off and did will to stabilize markets that were very close to being in free fall.

When the Fed finally made their tapering announcement, the stock sell-off was not nearly as severe as many had feared, leaving gold and silver little room to retain recent gains. Then, just as quickly as  gold and silver had made impressive gains, profit-taking brought the metals right back down to earth. Now, with the Chinese economy halted due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year, gold and silver are in a holding position until next week. The large quantity of US economic data scheduled to be released next week will give investors a clearer idea of whether the Fed made the right choice by tapering, or whether their move was a bit premature. Regardless of what pans out next week, many market analysts are sticking to their belief that safe-haven demand for precious metals will continue to rise as the risk-appetite exhibited by worldwide investors continues to decline.

January 24th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver posted small gains to close out what has been a somewhat impressive week for metals. After a rocky first two or three days, gold gained footing on Thursday and it along with silver were able to post impressive gains. As market analysts become more and more certain that the US stock market climb that has been going on for the past almost 5 years is coming to an end, those same analysts are curious to see if precious metals’ gains this week are going to translate into an extended bullish run.

Next week’s FOMC policy meeting is the talk of the marketplace and likely will continue to be until the meeting comes to a conclusion sometime in the middle of next week. As it stands the market is expecting to see the Fed taper QE by another $10 billion per month.

US Stocks Lagging, Could Be Deflated

As a result of the worldwide recession of 2008, US stock indexes slumped to record lows late in 2009. Since then, however, most US equities have slowly clawed their way back and have recently posted gains that many would have thought to be impossible only 4 years ago. Thanks to gold and silver’s gains the last few days, many market analysts are beginning to wonder if US equities may be on the verge of cooling off and correcting themselves. This growing belief, coupled with the fact that easy money is slowly exiting the marketplace means that stocks may have just seen the last of their glory days, at least for now.

If QE is, in fact, reduced by another $10 billion as a result of next week’s FOMC meeting it will undoubtedly spell bad news for US and world equities. Though it is also likely that further QE reduction will boost the USD, another tapering move may be just what precious metals need to propel them into making an extended bullish run. Gold has finally crossed over the key $1,260 threshold and we will find out if the yellow metal will be able to hang on to those gains come Monday morning.

Expect the trading atmosphere to be quiet in the early running of next week as many investors will await the outcome of the FOMC meeting before they think about making any major investing moves.

January 17th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver ended the day on Friday in positive fashion but netted losses this week, the first time in about a month for gold. Strong equity performance all over the globe was a major theme this week, most of which was fueled by strong economic data in the United States.The global economy is well on its way to recovery as investors the world over are seeing stock indexes increase in strength and grow at rates that have not been seen in a few years.

Physical demand for precious metals is still quite high, but physical demand alone is not going to be enough to help gold combat the strengthening global equity markets.

Gold Holding Steady, Global Economy Growing

After last Friday’s weak non-farm payrolls report hit the marketplace, investors immediately began to call into question the strength of the US economy as well as the Fed’s recent decision to taper Quantitative Easing. In case you missed it, non-farm payroll growth for this past December was reported at 74,000. The report was seen as so severely disappointing simply because the market expected to see growth of payrolls in December somewhere in the neighborhood of 200,000; keeping in line with the 215,000 average payroll increase we have seen over the past four months or so. As you might imagine, such weak payroll growth translated into higher gold and silver spot values last Friday and on Monday of this week. Investors were hoping that the gains would continue throughout this 5-day session, but stronger economic data prevented that from happening.

We are well within earnings reports season which means that companies will be publishing their financials from the 4th quarter of 2013. Thus far most earnings reports have been positive, bordering on the line of impressive. That, combined with upbeat retail sales and factory orders reports helped propel US equities forward this week. Equity markets in Europe and Asia responded to the positive US economic data by following the lead of US stocks.

With global stock markets on the rise and the US economy continuing to perform well, investors are wondering whether or not the Fed will pursue further tapering measures at any point in time this year. The Fed is scheduled to meet next on the 28th of the month at which point we will hopefully receive some insight into how the FOMC feels about intensifying tapering. Two voting members of the Fed were quoted this week as saying that they want to see QE completely eliminated by the end of this year. Even though all this easy money leaving the US marketplace is seen as a bad thing for the value of precious metals, the fact of the matter is that gold and silver withstood one tapering decision and even recovered so there is no reason for us to think they won’t be able to do the same if tapering is increased.

January 10th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver are on their way to heading into the weekend up for the week. After the first four days of this week were full of ups and downs for precious metals, today’s weaker than expected employment report for December solidified precious metals’ positive week. Somewhat disappointing economic reports out of China also helped gold and silver move forward, even if only slightly.

Though silver and gold are on the rise at the present moment, investors are somewhat disappointed by metals’ slow growth pace in the wake of what was an awful employment report.

US Employment Report Shocks the Market, Boosts Silver

The ADP employment report made public earlier this week indicated that well over the market expectation of 200,000 jobs were added to the US economy in December. The better than anticipated report on Wednesday led investors to believe that today’s non-farm payrolls data would emit similarly strong growth in December. Compared to market expectations of around a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, the 74,000 jobs that were actually added in December fell far short of what the market was anticipating.

The 125,000 payrolls disparity between what was expected and what actually occurred almost instantaneously pushed gold and silver forward while simultaneously putting heavy downward pressure on the US Dollar. In the immediate wake of the report’s release most investors were more confused than anything as the gap between what numbers were reported and what were expected was far larger than anyone would have prepared for, even in their wildest dreams. Some experts quickly chimed in and claimed that the report was skewed due to a busy holiday season and will be corrected before the month is through. Though there is no evidence behind claims that the report was skewed, such a drastic difference makes it easier to believe that such might be the case.

Despite gold and silver receiving a boost from today’s disappointing non-farm payrolls data, most people were and still are upset to see how slowly gold and silver are rising in value. You would think that a report this far off of market expectations would spike gold and silver spot values, something that just isn’t happening today. Another outcome of today’s report is that the debate regarding QE reductions will only become more fierce in the coming weeks. While some people are convinced that the Fed plans on tapering QE even further this year, disappointing economic reports like the one we witnessed today threaten to throw a monkey wrench in the Fed’s supposed tapering plans.

January 3rd Weekly Silver Market Update

This week was yet another holiday trading week, though gold and silver were able to pull off some modest gains. Apart from physical buying, gold and silver did not have much of anything substantial to push them towards the gains they made. This could mean that Thursday and Fridays’ positive numbers are nothing more than a fluke, but it could also mean that gold and silver have begun their long path to recovery.

Now that we have finally gotten 2014 underway, it is only right that we talk about what the future might possibly hold for precious metals.

2014′s Possible Implications for Precious Metals

Gold has turned the first two normal days of trading in 2014 into over $30 in gains while silver has added three-quarters of a dollar to its spot value. While many people feel as though these gains are nothing more than an isolated spike due to physical buying, others are interpreting this week’s gains as being the start of a bullish run for the metal. Whether one of these two beliefs is true or not is yet to be seen, but one thing that is for certain is that precious metals investors will be hoping for a better year in 2014 than they experienced in 2013.

First on the slate for investors is the upcoming debt ceiling deadline. While you may remember the US’ borrowing limit being reached in October and a temporary raising of the debt ceiling coming as a result, lawmakers raising the debt ceiling back in October was nothing more than a temporary fix. Now, the same problem is on the verge of poking its head out again as the temporary deal reached back in October is set to expire in the early parts of February. While February may seem like a while away, the debt ceiling deadline becomes more of an issue with each passing day. At this point it is unclear what the borrowing limit being reached might mean for precious metals as far as spot value movement is concerned, but it is certain that it will affect the US marketplace in some way or another and is something investors should keep an eye on.

Also on the mind of investors is the Federal Reserve and what their actions may be over the course of the next 12 months. A recent Quantitative Easing tapering decision made by the Federal Reserve and comments made by Ben Bernanke have caused a lot of people to believe that more tapering measures will be made throughout the year. The possibility of more tapering will undoubtedly unnerve precious metals investors, though whether or not more tapering will happen is yet to be seen.

2014 is already looking up for precious metals, though it is no secret that it is too early to tell what direction metals will head long-term.

 

December 27th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver have posted minor gains on what has been a slower than usual week thanks to the Christmas holiday falling on a Wednesday. As trading volumes have been subdued all week it is hard to gauge whether gold and silver’s minor gains can be attributed to anything more than short-covering.

Next week will see New Years fall on a Wednesday which means that for a second straight week we will likely see light trading volumes both in the US and across the globe. US stocks have continued their bullish run this week in the little amount of time they had, something that furthers the notion that investor interest is almost wholly centered on US stocks at the present moment in time.

Holidays Dampen Trading, Stocks Continue Their Run

On Monday and Tuesday, the only real trading days besides Friday, not a lot happened to sway the marketplace in one direction or another. What did happen, however, is that in the small time frame when investors were actually in their offices the US stock markets continued along their bullish run. Ever since the FOMC officially announced tapering over two weeks ago the marketplace has been obsessing over US stocks and such has been seen in incredible gains being posted over the last few weeks.

Unfortunately for gold and silver, however, increased interest in US stocks has taken almost all of the spotlight away from gold and silver, both of which have been on the decline recently. Even though short-covering helped gold and silver post modest gains this week, the outlook on precious metals is still bleak. So long as investor risk-appetite is as high as it has been the past few weeks there is no room for gold or silver to make any positive, lasting gains. Instead, precious metals have been tossed aside and will continue to be avoided until something happens to make investors crave a safer asset to put their investing funds into.

With the end of the year fast-approaching the only moves investors make will be preparatory moves for 2014. In the early stages and latter stages of next week we can expect investors to shed off any unwanted investments and pursue the investments that they think will take them far in the early stages of next year. Though it is hard to say in what direction gold and silver will head throughout 2014, many are thinking that the possibility of further tapering may drive down the spot values of gold and silver even further, though that is yet to be seen.

December 20th Weekly Silver Market Update

Gold and silver have had a turbulent and less than positive week as the Federal Reserve of the United States finally made the announcement that they will taper their monthly bond-buying monetary policy, also known as Quantitative Easing. The reduction to QE announced by the Fed was only about half of what the market was expecting to hear, though it put heavy selling pressure on gold nonetheless.

Both gold and silver were able to consolidate and make small gains in the early parts of Friday, though they are still at lows the market has not witnessed in quite some time.

FOMC Policy Meeting and Outcome

Prior to this week investors from all over the world had been speculating with regard to when the Fed would reduce QE and by how much they would reduce it by. Despite the fact that most of the market was expecting a tapering announcement to be made this week, there were still some doubters. Nonetheless, when Wednesday afternoon rolled around and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke made his post-meeting statement it became clear that the Fed finally made the tapering move that the marketplace has been expecting since summer.

Though the market was expecting to see government bond purchases decline by $20 billion, Bernanke announced that bond purchases would only be cut back by half that amount. Officially, the Fed will reduce its mortgage-backed securities purchases by $5 billion while also reducing their treasury bond purchases by the same tally. Tapering will begin next month, though its affects have been and still are being felt by the market.

In the initial aftermath of Bernanke’s statement, gold and silver spot values did not decline, but rather made minor gains. While some investors were beginning to think that gold and silver might have survived the worst of the Fed’s announcement, Thursday painted a different picture. As soon as markets opened up on Thursday it became clear that the real winners were the USD and US stocks while the biggest losers were gold and silver. Almost instantaneously on Thursday, gold opened up and dropped to a 6-month low, falling underneath the $1,200 threshold for the first time in a long time. As the bullish stock market run continues in the United States, gold and silver are still having a tough time gaining much of anything. Friday has seen spot values regain some foothold, but they are still far below what anyone would consider “normal.”